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christopherteggatz@teggatz.com
OK the spring semester is finished. Have to do grades but this is a minor matter since I enter everything on spreadsheets as they happen (one of the reasons I bought a Mac Air). I am looking forward to a bit of relaxation. This has been a difficult semester.
One of the people here got fired because of his blog. Vanessa got in trouble because of her Facebook and actually created 2 Facebook accounts, one which nobody except friends can see. I don’t really use Facebook except for the most vague and general shout-outs once in a blue moon. And on my blog I stopped writing anything about work or my host country about 10 years ago. Stopped back in Saudi. My family got concerned about my opinions about things. Anyway for one thing I never express my opinion about work or my host country and some day I’d actually ike to blog my real opinions. Furthermore I find the whole concept really fascist and irritating that an employer actually reads your blog or Facebook. I remember the old Wild West days of the internet I suppose. Now the fascists are dipping their hands in. I’d like to know who the guy is at my current work (note search engine avoidance technique) who is going around looking for internet trouble. You have the stones to come talk to me?
Well I am starting my MBA studies in 3 days. As you may recall the university (through my committee, the Professional Development Committee) is partially funding the venture. Basically I awarded myself a tuition grant. I have rather mixed feeling about this. My primary interest actually is making concrete business plans for Teggatz Enterprises. Also I am bolstering my resume for the next logical step in my career, which would be head of department. The thing here is I was de facto head of department in Saudi at various points (ie I made all the decisions and delegated work) and so I know what the job is, and I’ve done it, and it’s a thankless task which I have zero interest in. So skipping the next logical step and moving into administration is the real goal, the MBA being the bostering factor. I am not clear about how much work this MBA will involve, I suppose I’ll find out in 3 days, though the first class is an easy one, and the real work begins later. If I can manage to limit the work to tasks which interest me, such as risk management for Teggatz Enterprises for example, then the MBA will be no problem. I am not terribly excited about accounting but God knows I could use a little information on the subject. My first class starting in 3 days is Organizational Behavior (it’s an English university, the University of Cumbria, so I suppose I should spell it “behaviour”) and I am interested in organizational behavior of a family enterprise, for example how to motivate my wife to contribute, how to avoid the Company being split up and squabbled over when I’m dead (which would defeat the purpose). I am also interested in the behavior of investors as statistical groupings. I wonder if I can put that into the rubric of an organization, for example institutional investors control the bulk of the money on Wall St and their behavior is predictable within certain parameters. If I could write a research paper on institutional investors that would enable Teggatz Enterprises to make more accurate assessments of the market, then we’re in business, and this MBA will be a breeze.
The Teggatz Family has gone into austerity mode. The only premise is to pocket as much money as possible because after this we go home (to the States) and my actual opportunities for quick money will disappear (taxation, competitive job market, increased schooling expenses, etc etc, not to mention the need for a car and house). We’re looking at Texas partly because the cost of living in Texas is very low. Brownsville has the lowest cost of living in the USA, so we may well land in Houston and buy a car and go down and check out Brownsville. Another thing about Texas is there are a lot of job opportunities for me. However we also have California and Hawaii on the mind, the only problem with them being they’re very expensive places to live, and in the case of Hawaii, probably a very difficult job environment for me.
Forgot to mention, major victory for the Cheetahhhhhhh. I have been advocating in the senate and the Quality of Life Committee for 2 years now to give better family benefits, so that the university fits general best practice in our job market. Admittedly this was self-serving, but it was also in the interest of institution building and recruitment. For 2 years I was lobbying a brick wall. The previous vice president constantly shot me down. I did not give up. We have a new provost and she was actually receptive, and she asked me to conduct a survey last semester of similar universities in our job market. This was good but left me with no real hopes for action, just because AUAF is not a rich university. HOWEVER…. A few weeks ago the provost announced we would start giving a partial tuition subsidy to dependent children. Major victory. Major major victory. I suspect this might partly be because the provost herself has a son who will be attending the international school, but a victory in any form is a victory.
Haven’t blogged in a while and my apologies to my devoted readers. I’m going to try not to neglect you. I’ve just been very busy and had a lot on my mind. I could make a long and tedious list of things going on that preoccupy me but just trust me.
The big news at the moment is Obama made a secret surprise visit yesterday. He was actually within a mile of us at the presidential palace and actually I remember thinking yesterday, when a squadron of helicopters was flying unusually low, that something must be going on. Today we woke up to several bomb blasts going off as the insurgents tried to attack some installation where internationals live.
I should say AUAF is like a fortress and this is probably a lot to do with me. I am sure the president or provost of the university claim credit (and rightly so, I claim credit for the work I delegate on my committees) but the fact is that as a university senator, and as a member of the Quality of life Committee under which issues of security fall, I have been constantly harping for 2 years now about the need to increase security. Results have happened fairly steadily. I’m not tooting my horn, I’m just saying I’ve been on the ball and recognized the urgency and the need. A week ago we visited the new campus which is under construction and I harped about the lack of fortifications, etc, and was actually quite pissed that there was nothing being done. Yesterday in a committee meeting I was pleasantly surprised to see that money and manpower had magically been allocated to fortifying the new campus. Again, just saying I’m on the ball. The thing is, fortifications are a part of doing business in Afghanistan, and that’s just a plain fact, however most academics don’t generally have fortifications jump to mind when they consider institution-building.
The semester is winding down and thank God. I need a break. This whole Fall of Saigon Act Two business can be exhausting. I am on tap for summer courses, which would be very profitable, but this depends on enrollment, so it’s impossible to day what our plans are exactly, and I won’t know until early June. If there is no profitability in the summer then we will go sit on a beach in Thailand, and in many ways I would really prefer this, as I need a break, and the kids could use some beach fun, and it would do my morale a world of good to see Vanessa in a bikini. However my bank account is the reason I’m here (not here for the lifestyle) so we’ll see.
Bug lost his first tooth. The tooth faerie has left him 75 cents and several pesos.
Tristan is sick and vomiting, he got a nurse visit and a shot in the arse.
We thought spring had sprung but then yesterday cold and snow returned.
You probably know about the Koran burning at Bagram air base. Now yesterday some lunatic American soldier went on a killing spree. Lately the Taliban doesn’t have to do anything, the Americans have shown an amazing propensity for shooting themselves in the foot. If I was Afghani I would want the US out also, after this. Really troublesome for those of us on the non-military end of operations. We look like a bunch of idiots, and I wish the military would get its act together, now I have to prepare for more rioting.
Not been blogging so much because of time management issues.
To add to my no-end-of-trouble entry below.
First, this is a really severe winter in Kabul, the worst I’ve seen since I lived in Minneapolis in the early 1990s. And Minneapolis is pretty snowy and cold. This is the worst I’ve seen since then. About 6 or 7 feet in the mountains I imagine, about maybe 4 to 5 feet in the city which makes a compact baselayer of about a foot of solid snow. And it’s chick-a-lickin cold, and university facilities are apparently unable to make us warmer. This is a point of some irritation and I actually brought it up in one committee, pointing out that I’m freezing my butt off and so is everybody else except maybe the president, and what gives. I put it in more diplomatic terms of course but that was the essence. Seems that facilities are hampered by their budget. I can understand this answer and have basically decided to bite the bullet and endure 3 or 4 more cold weeks. However I am somewhat displeased, and am of the opinion that Kabul is trouble enough already, and a priority should be placed on keeping us warm. I did not express this opinion in committee, even though I think it’s a totally valid point, but I did point out that being cold damages morale, and morale is actually a serious issue here. Sometimes we’re too cold to do anything except lay in bed. Very irritating. Tbe bright side is I think we’re over the really bad part of winter. I just have a feeling, having grown up in the snowy north, I can sense it in my bones or something. Think we just rode over the hump.
In addition I am teaching an extra section to make extra money, and so I’m teaching quite a bit, which is mildly irritating, though I have this racket down pretty solid, and also I have an assistant who I give everything to except correcting essays. So while I’m teaching a lot, I manage to keep my energy and activity level manageable. If my assistant is reading this you should come to my office tomorrow, I need you to correct some quizzes and make photocopies. A bit busier than normal though.
We’ve had no end of trouble since returning to kabul. the big problem is the cold. It’s a really fierce winter, with tons of snow and extremely cold temperatures. Unfortunately the houses here aren’t insulated and so it’s very difficult to be warm. Being cold saps all your energy and leaves you lethargic. Me, personally, I find myself thinking about tropical beaches such as Boracay and Ko Samet. I would give a hundred bucks to anybody who will take me immediately to the Blue Mango on Bora.
Tristan is starting talking a lot. His favorite toy is his shapes from grandpa. He’s a good boy though he’s a bit of a rascal.Stating to yap all day long. His baby accent is a bit thick however and you have to strain a bit to understand him.
The good thing about this fearsome winter is that classes are getting cancelled or ending early, because transportation is a real problem for students in this weather. There is a bit of a lack of good roads here among other things.
We’re back in Kabul after a month’s vacation. Haven’t blogged since we got on the plane in Dec. The thing is, when I go on vacation, I go on vacation. Switch goes off.
Kabul has a foot of snow and sub-arctic temps. Problem is staying warm in the house. For some reason the houses here aren’t insulated and we just have space heaters. It’s really enough to make you a little crazy. The good thing though is that the fighting has ground to a halt. Usually you see NATO helos flying over the mountains surrounding Kabul off on some op. You see and hear them all day long. With the big freeze going on, everything is quiet.
Massive jet lag has turned me into a morning person for the first time in… well, decades… and surprisingly enough I like it. I also don’t use ambien any more which is good. Cure for ambien is to fly into reverse time, ie fly east.
Vanessa the tropical girl walks around the house all day long in legwarmers and a parka. She complains she hates winter. I tell her she better learn to like it because February is coming.
Rest in peace to Mara S., my high school classmate. Only the good die young. Very sad and shocking.
I am only scheduled for one class next semester. This will probably change but I’m keeping my fingers crossed, I might get lucky…
I’ve flown Gulf Air a few times and unless you’re in 1st class, an airline is an airline these days. However I will tell you why Gulf Air really sucks. They cancelled our Kabul flight 12 hours before we were going to go. We’ve spent a total of about 4 hours, literally, on the phone getting rebooked. It’s absolutely infuriating. Anyway we leave 17th, arrive in Chicago 18th. This is cutting it really close with Vanessa’s visa, which expires the 18th. However you can tell I’m a derivatives trader because I hedge everything. I hedged the 18th by 3 days, originally booking on the 15th. Aside from the irritation about wasting 4 hours of my life on the phone rebooking, we also have no food in the house, which is a problem in Kabul where you can’t just walk to the corner store.
I enjoy Swackett, which is a Mac and iPad app. Might be on Windows but I don’t use Windows any more. Apparently the hottest place on earth is in Mozambique with 121F, and the other end is Siberia with -51F. Here in Kabul, Swackett advises a turtleneck sweater, jeans, and sunglasses. This is actually good advice except for the sunglasses. Swackett is obviously unaware that the Afghanis burn wood to keep warm and there is a smoggy haze which will last until it gets warm again, because we’re in a valley between mountains. Indeed the air quality here in winter is really terrible, and is one of my rationalizations for smoking, because with all the smoke in the air, I might as well at least be enjoying myself.
Despite the fact that we have several boxes of clothes waiting for us in the US at my sister’s house, Van appears to have packed the entire house.
The city does not produce enough electricity in our neighborhood to actually have the heaters produce heat. We have a generator and I may end up telling the guards to just run it continuously this winter. This would irritate the finance department and my ears, because the generator is loud.
I am finished with exams and will spend the day in my office calculating and posting grades. The sole exception is 3 jackasses who did not have their presentations ready. I am teaching “Academic Connections” which is basically public speaking and I am not entirely sure why I’m being a nice guy with these 3, but they have 430-5PM to come to my office.
Bug is off to his last day of school, and Van is busy packing. I have been exhausted and crabby, because I’m working my ass off, what with exam week etc, plus my various committees and the university senate, plus the necessity of attending provost meetings because we all want the provost to like us (and actually I like her, the only point is it is consuming my time), plus I am suffering from a very nasty cold just like everybody else in the department, plus I have small children who need attention, plus I have a business to run. All this boils down to me being exhausted and crabby. Yesterday at 8PM I came home from the office and just collapsed into bed.
The bright side is vacation starts in about 6 hours.
It’s my birthday. 42. Good lord.
It’s 12:49PM Kabul time. That means 4 days and 6 hours before we board Gulf Air bound for Manama-Paris-Chicago. In this time I have to give and correct 4 exams and put in grades. Going to be a bit of a b*tch but I can do it.
After Bug is done with school today, we’re going to go to Chicken Street to buy Christmas presents for people. The family Stateside is getting Afghan handicrafts. Then we’re going to Boccacio, the nicest restaurant in town which also doubles as a Ukrainian whorehouse (biggest open secret in Kabul) for my birthday dinner.
My balcony looks out onto the Hindu Kush, which are the foothills of the Himalayas. It’s a very clear, bright day and the upper ranges rising up past Kabul already have snow on their peaks.
Went long Jul and Oct TNA options. This is in anticipation of the summer presidential election year rally, the bulk of which should come in June.
Market action is brutally fugly for our positions. Silver and gold have broken down completely and we should expect some sustained downward movement. Our NUGT position has also broken down. Our physical silver and our SLV May options are a disaster. Brutally fugly. Not been a good year so far. The only consolation is that we’ve put a relatively minor amount of capital at work.
#1, there is considerable risk with gold and silver and until otherwise determined, the trend is down, and I wouldn’t even put puts on metals, because they could easily reverse.
#2, I expect a withdrawal of Greece from the Eurozone unless things change. There will be some panic as this approaches and then a very big rally as Europe gets a real monkey off its back.
#3, miners (NUGT) will recover when the SPX recovers. Miners like Barrack are taking good measures to improve profitability and we will have a major investment opportunity once a bottom is in. It may be painful for a while but we’re holding NUGT, and the reason we bought the actual ETF rather than options was precisely because of this possibility.
#4, SLV may see some recovery with the opening of silver futures trading in China on Thursday. Don’t bank on this but it could be a real factor. On the other hand it may be a non-event.
#5, once the SPX puts a bottom in we will have some real buying opportunities because we have every reason to expect a sustained rally over the summer, starting approx Jun 4. I have been discussing this for about 6 months and the reason for this is the election year Democratic incumbent seasonal pattern, and McClellan’s eurodollar fractal (which has proven very robust for the last 2 years or so). We are inclined to purchase value blue chips if any present themselves which are highly correlated to the SPX, or triple-weighted ETFs, the latter instead of options because our predictions could always be wrong and things could go to hell in a handbasket, and while unlikely, we want to be able to have stops and high liquidity, which means options are out. It’s a pity but there is considerable event risk at the moment.
#6, this panic and withdrawal from the market is temporary and while the extent of it is surprising to the Company (we wouldn’t have bought NUGT, we would have waited), nevertheless cool heads will make the money and it’s not a big crash; it’s a correction which will resolve itself shortly (June 4). Thus we should not short the market, it’s too risky. We should wait for confirmation of a bottom and price recovery, and this should be coupled with news event confirmation. Also, when June 4 approaches and we start looking to go long, we should scale in.
Our long options trade on May SLV is really pissing us off and may be a total loss. We are still looking for an exit where we can recover our costs or at least some of them. However op-ex is fast approaching and we can dare to dream that the Europeans will do some QE tomorrow (the euro and SLV have a high positive correlation), for example, but this is wishful thinking, which doesn’t make money. I also think the dollar is going to see a steady decline over the summer, but this will be too late to salvage our SLV position (SLV and the dollar have a high inverse correlation). We will jump out when we can. Bloody frakkin silver.
There is a lot of talk that gold and silver markets are manipulated. I have always been skeptical, I dount they’re any more manipulated than any other stock, and this is partly because, contrary to popular perception, and as I point out rather constantly in this blog, gold and silver are not money, they are merely perceived as money. In truth they are just shiny metals and that’s it, and people who attribute other qualities are living back in the 1960s when there was a Gold Standard. However yesterday there was a very suspicious multi-million dollar trade in gold. It’s suspicious because it was made below value, immediately pushing prices down. It’s also suspicious because anybody trading millions of dollars does it in pieces, not wholesale. Even me, who only deals in thousands, even I stagger trades to cost average the price.
I see gold miners at a historical low, presenting a great long-term investment. I’m going long NUGT today. I also see gold prices steadily rising over the summer despite seasonal factors which would suggest otherwise. This is primarily because gold is entering a new 13-1/2 month cycle. Further, the seasonal patterns are different in election years and the democratic election year pattern generally sees summer rallies. Gold as a speculative instrument should rise with the SPX, and gold miners (NUGT) along with it. I think we can recover our losses from this bloody SLV trade by Jul or so with NUGT. We will probably go long PHYS or GGN toward the end of May as well.
Silver is suffering from a number of problems, one of which is that there is actually an oversupply. This fact went basically unremarked last year but now I’ve seen this pointed out in many quarters. The Company has written off our May options as a loss, though we will attempt to liquidate and salvage some of the capital. There is always the Fed next week but that’s wishful thinking. Other central banks are doing the QE for the Fed, and so they have no reason to do so.
Palladium was mention in Barrons a couple of weeks ago and today we have a major breakout. There is supposedly a shortage of palladium. I say supposedly because the problem with palladium is that the Russians have been hoarding it for years and their actual stores of palladium are a state secret. This is not to say that palladium is shiny and desirable. I want it and have for years. I mean the physical. But I don’t see buying PALL without a follow through from platinum and silver, primarily because they are mined in the same deposits and are used for similar industrial purposes.
With SLV we have some very negative press and large outflows from the ETF at the moment which is suggestive of a bottom, but we may well be in an orderly unwinding silver (commodities generally crash up and unwind in an orderly fashion). It is, along with gold, grossly overvalued, and this blog has said as much for some time (years). SLV is in the process of forming an inverted head-and-shoulders but this chart pattern is not as reliable as people think. Also SLV is very closely correlated with the SPX and we can reasonably anticipate a good drop in the SPX. As I said, the Company has written off its SLV options. The good thing here I suppose is that being option traders, we risk small amounts of capital.
At the moment the Company is looking for an opportunity to unwind its SLV options and is preparing for what we anticipate will be a good rally starting late May. We have discussed this in previous posts, indeed we have been waiting for this rally for about 6 months.
An inverse head and shoulders is forming on the daily SLV chart, which has medium-term bullish implications:
While my short term (1 month) outlook for silver is not good (discussed below), medium-term (up to about November) silver seems shiny.
The presidential year cycle and McClellans eurodollar fractal lead me to see an SPX rally this summer leading to Nov. Bespoke’s weekly report today discusses the presidential election year pattern. With silver highly correlated to the SPX, there should also be a medium-term rally in silver.
Note on the weekly, SLV is in a squeeze which should see a clear breakout within a few weeks, and major support has not been violated, nor has the upward trendline:
The monthly silver chart is still uber-bullish and a summer SPX rally should support the uber-bullishness:
Silver futures margins will be lowered on the 16th and my thoughts are this.
First, they’re not being lowered very much, and as of Monday it will take about 9.5% of the value to hold the paper, whereas when silver went parabolic in 2011 on April 29, it took only 4% to hold the paper. So I am not sure there will be much of an effect, though it may provide some price stabilization in silver.
After the announcement you would have thought silver would rally, but it didn’t, which bodes ill. However the margin lowering doesn’t take effect until Monday and thus the extra bit of liquidity will not be present until Monday. I suppose Monday will be a key day which we should pay some close attention to… because either this extra liquidity will be reinvested in silver or it won’t.
This does lower the probability of a silver crash like we had last year, however.
Some have called this blatant silver market manipulation and it’s fairly easy to find conspiracy theories about silver market manipulation. Zero Hedge is always a good source for conspiracy. I will not completely discount the idea of silver market manipulation because it has happened in the past and so is likely to happen again. However the silver market itself is fairly liquid compared to the 1970s (when we can say with some precision that the silver market was being manipulated) and so this in itself makes me somewhat doubtful. I would say the lowering of the silver margin coincides with the Fed turning off its money spigot, and that’s about it.
There are few reasons to be bullish on silver at the moment, and this is unfortunate for the Company’s position. I will elaborate in a moment. We are options traders and hold May calls on SLV. We chose SLV primarily for its liquidity and low slippage as compared to leveraged instruments, which generally are useful only for intraday trading. Our SLV position is and was a two month trade based on seasonal factors. One of the things with being an options trader is that it’s not easy to exit a position like if we were holding SLV outright. So at the moment we are suffering well over 50% loss and are of the mind to stick it out. This is mainly because of the primary advantage of trading options; our actual money at risk is rather small. Although we don’t want to lose it, it seems pointless to exit now, especially given the volatility of silver and the reasonable likelihood that we can exit later with a recoup of some of our capital. So unless market conditions change, we are looking to exit our position. The market conditions for silver are this.
First, McClellan sees a decline in the dollar and a rise in gold coming, which would be very nice. His reasoning is based mostly on COT data. Go McClellan! I hope to frack you’re right. However he also predicts a decline in the SPX, which I find problematic, as I will discuss.
Now, with these charts, you can right-click “view image” to see the big chart.
The SPX has entered a new cycle (note sine waves) and is pretty clearly on a downward trajectory at the moment.
We expect this to change around May or June primarily because of the presidential election yearly pattern. This bull is difficult to time precisely but is the reason we hold May SLV calls and is also why we think our position may well turn around. Note the fairly strong inverse relation between SPY and UUP:
And note the strong correlation between SPY and SLV:
and the strong inverse relation between UUP and SLV:
McClellan sees a fall in the dollar and the SPX and a rise in gold (which has a very strong correlation with silver of course) and I find this somewhat contradictory, one of these predictions has to be wrong. Of course the degree of correlations shown above is not perfect and correlation shifts (as you can easily see on the correlation on the bottom of the charts) so correlation is not a perfect way to read markets, and one must always be aware that correlations are dynamic and shifting.
Bottom line, the high probability scenario is a decline in the SPX for the next month. This should result in a rise in the dollar and a corresponding drop in silver. Hope I’m wrong.
The Company holds May SLV calls @32 & 35. Have bought on dips to lower cost basis.
The chatter on Stocktwits has gone bearish and apparently CNBC is saying short silver. As a contrarian, this tells me the bottom is in.
Today McClellan went bullish on precious metals.
As I have noted, seasonally we should expect a rise in silver through ~May 10.
Charts (right click “view image” to see the large chart):
First, silver priced in dollars and euros is in a squeeze which should see a clear breakout soon one way or another:
Monthly pitchfork suggests a LT price of 46:
The big picture in silver, in a clear uptrend until proven otherwise (which would take a hell of a lot), and it has bounced off the mid-channel support and should continue up: